Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
